Among the government"s most interesting reports is one that estimates what parents spend on their children. Not surprisingly, the costs are steep. For a middle-class, husband-and-wife family (average pretax income in 2009: $76,250), spending per child is about $12,000 a year. With inflation the family"s spending on a child will total $286,050 by age 17.
The dry statistics ought to inform the ongoing deficit debate, because a budget is not just a catalog of programs and taxes. It reflects a society"s priorities and values. Our society does not—despite rhetoric (说辞) to the contrary—put much value on raising children. Present budget policies tax parents heavily to support the elderly. Meanwhile, tax breaks for children are modest. If deficit reduction aggravates these biases, more Americans may choose not to have children or to have fewer children. Down that path lies economic decline.
Societies that cannot replace their populations discourage investment and innovation. The), have stagnant (萧条的) or shrinking markets for goods and services. With older populations, they resist change. To stabilize its population—discounting immigration—women must have an average of two children. That"s a fertility rate of 2.0. Many countries with struggling economies are well below that.
Though having a child is a deeply personal decision, it"s shaped by culture, religion, economics, and government policy. "No one has a good answer" as to why fertility varies among countries, says sociologist Andrew Cherlin of The Johns Hopkins University. Eroding religious belief in Europe may partly explain lowered birthrates. In Japan young women may be rebelling against their mothers" isolated lives of child rearing. General optimism and pessimism count. Hopefulness fueled America"s baby boom. After the Soviet Union"s collapse, says Cherlin, "anxiety for the future" depressed birthrates in Russia and Eastern Europe.
In poor societies, people have children to improve their economic wellbeing by increasing the number of family workers and providing support for parents in their old age. In wealthy societies, the logic often reverses. Government now supports the elderly, diminishing the need for children. By some studies, the safety nets for retirees have reduced fertility rates by 0. 5 children in the United States and almost 1.0 in Western Europe, reports economist Robert Stein in the journal National Affairs . Similarly, some couples don"t have children because they don"t want to sacrifice their own lifestyles to the time and expense of a family.
Young Americans already face a bleak labor market that cannot instill (注入) confidence about having children. Piling on higher taxes won"t help, "If higher taxes make it more expensive to raise children," says Nicholas Eberstadt of the American Enterprise Institute, "people will think twice about having another child." That seems like common sense, despite the multiple influences on becoming parents. What do we learn from the government report